IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.2	#271
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.8	#149
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.9	#233

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#299

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.3%	2.7%	1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.5	14.1	14.5

.500 or above	22.2%	47.6%	21.2%
.500 or above in Conference	24.6%	40.2%	24.0%
Conference Champion	1.4%	3.0%	1.4%
Last Place in Conference	24.0%	11.6%	24.4%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	1.2%	2.6%	1.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 8	3 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 6	11 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	51	@ Mississippi	L	66-85	4%
Nov 14, 2019	300	VMI	W	81-76	67%
Nov 15, 2019	266	UC Davis	W	71-68	59%
Nov 17, 2019	338	Idaho	W	75-66	79%
Nov 20, 2019	179	@ Colorado St.	L	70-78	25%
Nov 30, 2019	290	Stephen F. Austin	W	75-71	64%
Dec 03, 2019	195	Nebraska Omaha	L	76-77	46%
Dec 07, 2019	100	@ Tulsa	L	67-81	12%
Dec 11, 2019	125	@ Missouri St.	L	65-77	15%
Dec 18, 2019	202	Louisiana	L	80-81	48%
Dec 21, 2019	223	@ Louisiana Monroe	L	71-77	31%
Jan 02, 2020	135	Texas Arlington	L	68-73	34%
Jan 04, 2020	156	Texas St.	L	66-70	38%
Jan 06, 2020	162	Georgia St.	L	74-77	39%
Jan 09, 2020	138	@ South Alabama	L	68-78	19%
Jan 11, 2020	297	Troy	W	75-71	65%
Jan 16, 2020	212	@ Appalachian St.	L	76-82	30%
Jan 18, 2020	172	@ Coastal Carolina	L	72-81	23%
Jan 23, 2020	138	South Alabama	L	71-75	35%
Jan 25, 2020	297	@ Troy	L	72-74	45%
Jan 30, 2020	212	Appalachian St.	L	79-80	49%
Feb 01, 2020	172	Coastal Carolina	L	75-78	42%
Feb 08, 2020	220	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	72-78	32%
Feb 13, 2020	135	@ Texas Arlington	L	65-76	18%
Feb 15, 2020	156	@ Texas St.	L	63-73	22%
Feb 19, 2020	223	Louisiana Monroe	W	74-73	51%
Feb 22, 2020	220	Arkansas Little Rock	W	76-75	50%
Feb 26, 2020	202	@ Louisiana	L	77-84	29%
Mar 03, 2020	122	@ Georgia Southern	L	75-87	16%
Projected Record						11 - 18	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0				2.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.1	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0					3.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.4	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.0							4.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.7	2.4	1.1	0.1	0.0								5.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	2.0	3.4	1.4	0.2	0.0									7.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.2	3.8	2.0	0.2	0.0										8.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	2.2	4.2	2.4	0.4	0.0											9.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.5	2.5	4.9	2.9	0.5	0.0												11.3	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.0	3.4	5.2	3.2	0.6	0.0													13.5	10th
11th		0.1	0.4	2.4	4.6	4.9	2.6	0.5	0.0														15.6	11th
12th	0.7	2.5	4.0	4.8	3.3	1.4	0.3	0.0															16.9	12th

Total	0.7	2.5	4.4	7.3	8.9	10.2	11.0	11.2	10.2	9.0	7.8	5.7	4.3	2.9	1.8	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	99.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	82.5%	0.2		0.2	0.0	0.0
16-4	62.3%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0
15-5	38.7%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	14.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.4%	1.4		0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																		0.0
19-1	0.0%		62.5%	62.5%		12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
18-2	0.1%		28.0%	28.0%		13.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
17-3	0.3%		25.8%	25.8%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
16-4	0.6%		22.6%	22.4%	0.2%	13.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5		0.2%
15-5	1.0%		20.6%	20.6%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.8
14-6	1.8%		14.8%	14.8%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.6
13-7	2.9%		5.0%	5.0%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	2.8
12-8	4.3%		2.8%	2.8%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2
11-9	5.7%		1.7%	1.7%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.6
10-10	7.8%		1.3%	1.3%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.7
9-11	9.0%		0.3%	0.3%		15.7																0.0	0.0	8.9
8-12	10.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																0.0	0.0	10.2
7-13	11.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
6-14	11.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
5-15	10.2%																							10.2
4-16	8.9%																							8.9
3-17	7.3%																							7.3
2-18	4.4%																							4.4
1-19	2.5%																							2.5
0-20	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	14.5												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.3	98.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%